incomplete track of market

20251210

• as expected, Fed cut rate 0.25&, with a 9-3 vote. at the same time, resume purchasing Treasury securities, starting with a $40B purchase. the response of market is just ok because it’s already priced it in. both gold and oil around the same level, crypto down below 90k. in the end, the concern is still about inflation and the economy growth.

20251209

• Many countries will kepp the rate unchanged. will fed cut the rate in December in the coming Wednesday? Bitcoin jumps 4,000 to more than $94,300. Oil price slides 1% to about $58.2. gold price up a bit above $4,200. the global bond selloff paused on Tuesday 12/09. all indexes are up. so if the rate cut has already been priced in the stock market, unchanged rate and easing pause will definitely upset the market a bit. if there would be .25 cut, the rally would continue.

• Monday 12/08: traders expecting Fed signal:

  • 10-year treasure yield up more than 2 basis points at 4.168%
  • 30-year treasure yield rose less than 2 basis points to 4.811%
  • 2-year treasure yield to 3.579%
  • one basic oint is equal 0.01%, yields and prices move in opposite diections

20251202

20251120: Bitcoin is down closer to 80K. 20251130: Bitcoin down to 83K after closer to 93K on 11/27. 20251202 night: Bitcoin up closer to 92K.

The historic high is over 126K on 20251005.

Gold reaches its one high over US$4,300 on 20251020. Now it is above 4,200.

20251114

• Bitcoin was down 5.6% to about $97,200 into a bear market on Friday.

• Michael Burry of ‘Big Short’ fame is closing his hedge fund at the end of October, 2025.

20251112

• Oil posts biggest drop since June: West Texas Intermediate fell by 4.2% to settle around $58.50 a barrel. OPEC said global crude supplies surpassed demand sooner than anticipated. Worldwide oil supplies exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels a day during the period.

20251111

• In the early morning, there is a piece of news reporting from Bloomberg that SoftBank Group Corp. sold its entire stake in Nvidia Corp., pocketing $5.83 billion to help bankroll envisioned AI investment. Last time it’s 2019. CFO Yoshimitsu Goto said, “I can’t say if we’re in an AI bubble or not.”

• Coatue Management reported that AI bubble is far from bursting.

  • November 2025

  • Coatue

• At Sunday night (20251109), 8 Democratic senators caved. The shutdown of USA government is supposed to end soon.

20251104

• Palantir down 8% to about $190. is it the start of AI bubble burst?

• Bitcoin fell below $100,000 first time since June.

• Gold price is hovering just below $4,000.

• we have at least two bubbles for now. One is AI, the other Crypto.

• At night, 34-year-old Mamdani triumphed with a decisive victory in the New York City mayoral election against disgraced Andrew Cuomo. The election’s high stakes inspired a stunning 2 million New Yorkers to cast ballots — the biggest turnout since 1969. “New York will remain a city of immigrants, a city built by immigrants, powered by immigrants, and, as of tonight, led by an immigrant,” Mamdani said in his victory speech. “Hear me, President Trump, when I say this: To get to any of us, you will have to get through all of us.”

• Voters in California also approved a new congressional map that could give the state a massive boost in 2026 midterm elections.

20251029

• Today Nvidia has just reached the market value of $5Trillion. Both Microsoft and Apple have the market value of $4T. Gold return just above the mark of $4000/ounce.

• On October 29, 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the target range to 3.75% - 4.00%. This marks the second rate cut of the year, following a similar reduction in September.

  • Economic Conditions: The Fed cited moderate economic expansion but noted that job gains have slowed and the unemployment rate has slightly increased.

  • Inflation Concerns: Inflation has risen since earlier in the year and remains elevated, complicating the Fed’s dual mandate to maximize employment while controlling inflation.

  • Labor Market Risks: There are increasing concerns about downside risks to employment, prompting the need for a rate cut to stimulate the economy.

• The Bank of Canada (BoC) just cut its interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down from 2.50% to 2.25%. This is the second consecutive cut from the central bank as it cut its rate by 25 basis points in September.

others

• Being the right size, by J.B.S.Haldane 1928

• What is life?

We are not rich by what we possess but by what we can do without. ― Immanuel Kant

Rules for happiness: something to do, someone to love, something to hope for. ― Immanuel Kant

• Deep learning with Python by Francois Chollet and Matthew Watson

Book: Technofeudalism by Yanis Varoufakis, 2023

As a response to the combined effect of the privatisation of the internet on the one hand, and the nearly no-strings-attached way with which states have injected eye-wateringly large sums of money into banks and large businesses after the 2008 financial crisis on the other, rent has supplanted profit as the main driver of the global economy.

The reference to feudalism is quite literal: capitalists, according to Varoufakis, are still doing very well, but they are no longer running the show. They have turned into (very well-off) vassals, who have to pay their dues to techno-feudal lords (Amazon; Google; Apple; Meta) – say, in order to selling and/or advertise on such platforms. The reason why this is the case is that rent-based capital has, just like under pre-industrial feudalism, supplanted profit-based capital as the driver of the economy. The fundamental system is no longer one where the capitalist extracts value from workers to generate as much profit as possible and be competitive in the market; re-invests in new machineries, technologies, etc., in order to make profit extraction ever more efficient; and thereby generates growth and innovation. It has rather become one where big tech bosses act like feudal lords – rentiers who own digital, rather than natural, “land” and can extract value (albeit in slightly different ways) from everyone who want or need to use their platforms. Like medieval lords, their power and wealth comes from sheer rent – for which, in a  certain sense, they do not need to “do” anything.

Yet the idea that fighting it requires grappling with how to escape collectively from “carefully curated isolation” remains a crucial insight. If only we knew how.

record

the one sold gets a boost and the one bought gets a slide. how lucky could this happen? but here i am.

insurance companies