investing
the first rate hike this month did not stop the spending, both economy and job market seem stable. the quarterly reports in late October should give us some clues about the economy and the job market? the end cause is still the Iran war. so end the war, open Hormuz and let the oil flow.
- Defying higher bond yields: Consumers keep spending and the economy keeps booming?
In a panel on Friday, Cleveland Federal Reserve president Beth Hammack said a number of factors are driving up yields, pointing to a strong economy as a key one. “I think that the growth numbers have come in in a pretty solid way,” she said on the panel in Cleveland. “I think that expectations of continued performance, if you look at earnings and profits for various public companies, they’ve been coming in above expectations, and there have been signs of resilience that I think the markets are starting to price in.” She acknowledged that markets are pricing in more interest rate hikes and that the US is on an unsustainable fiscal path.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve president Anna Paulson also said this week that she sees a resilient economy that’s showing some signs of increased momentum despite tariffs and higher oil prices. She noted that consumer spending has been strong, the AI build-out is driving investment, and the labor market is stable.
growth is part of why bond yields have risen, but that the “major thing” is high government spending and fiscal deficits. the yield on the 10-year Treasury, currently around 5.2%, could top out at 5.5%. If the yield starts climbing above that level, then the Fed would likely increase rates more, causing more pain for the economy and a sell-off in stocks, which have helped drive consumer spending.
Peter Lynch. Fidelity.
2011/2012 Accredo Health. NYT the stock went down 95% and never recovered. always unknown unknowns. there’s always risks that no matter how much you try to dimensionalize an opportunity are present.
there is a shortage there’s eventually a glut. now we have memory shortage for AI data centers, computers, and consumer electronics. when will the glut coming? fundamental shortages of watts and wafer. AI bubble is a disaster for Taiwan semis. they are just simply not expanding capacity as fast as Jensen Huang wants. That’s a real-world physical constraint.
Nvidia, AWS Trainium, Google/Broadcom TPUs (Tensor Processing Unit), MTIA (Meta Training and inference accelerator). Trainium is underrated and Trainium 3 ramps in the second half of 2026 as TPUs were to 2025.
GPU hyper-scalers clusters: Coreweave, Nebius, Crusoe, Lambda, etc. are still durable. it’s really hard to do well but it seems easy.
Orbital compute, when does that commercially gain real market share? in next two years. (really?!, power, cooling, etc for data centers on the land)
- Gavin Baker: Mag7 and AI
at the start of a new tech, the infrastructure layer instead of application layer the safest place to be. bullish infra and bearish applications.
Google cloud and Gemini models process 22 billion API tokens per minute with Gemini App at 950 million monthly active users. Q2 2026 revenue 24% year ove year.
Meta Q2 FY26 28% year over year.
Rivan shares have fallen 91% from $172 on Nov 16, 2021 to $15 of Sept 18, 2026. that is what happens to electric vehicle bubble.
- US debt is always a problem
Warren Buffett: We’re operating at a fiscal deficit now that is unsustainable over a very long period of time. We are doing something that is unsustainable, and it has the aspect to it that it gets uncontrollable to a certain point.
Through the first 11 months of fiscal 2026, the federal government ran up another $1.97 trillion deficit. Meanwhile, the national debt has surged past a staggering $40 trillion.
Beneath America’s sprawling fiscal problem lies something that affects every household: the value of its money (due to fiscal policy).
According to the inflation calculator put out by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, $100 in 2026 has the same purchasing power as just $11.61 did in 1970. Put another way, nearly 90% of the dollar’s 1970 purchasing power has disappeared — and that’s without the currency reaching anything close to the “hell” scenario Buffett invoked.
Gold’s appeal is simple: unlike fiat currencies, the yellow metal can’t be printed at will by central banks. This inherently limited supply can help it store value. Gold is also considered the ultimate safe haven. It’s not tied to any one country, currency or economy, and in times of economic turmoil or geopolitical uncertainty, investors often flock to it — driving prices higher.
the best thing to do is own the S&P 500 index fund,
- 20260925 US debt selloff
Global bond sell-off intensifies, hitting housing markets. Japan’s benchmark yield tops 3.1% as bets grow on cycle of Fed rate hikes due to inflation caused by Iran war and big US government debt loads.
Stocks got a boost after the price for a barrel of Brent oil dropped 2.8% to $97.44 per barrel. It’s been yo-yoing on uncertainty about when the war with Iran will allow oil to flow freely again from the Middle East. Prices go down when hopes rise for a possible deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers, and they go up when doubts resurface. But trading was shaky again on Wall Street Friday, particularly after a report on U.S. consumer sentiment sent Treasury yields higher in the morning.
The report from the University of Michigan said U.S. consumers are bracing for inflation of 4.6% in the coming year, up from their forecast of 4% the month before. It also said that overall sentiment among consumers was not as bad as economists expected, even if it was the lowest in four months.
Following the report on consumer sentiment, the yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly jumped to 5.22%, up from 5.18% late Thursday, and was near its highest level since 2007. High yields slow the economy by making it more expensive for everyone to borrow money, while undercutting prices for stocks and other investments. The 10-year yield has been jumping since the start of the war with Iran, when it was at 3.97%.
摩根大通和KKR的策略师认为，随着能源驱动的通胀、政府大量借贷以及央行进一步收紧货币政策的风险持续发酵，美国国债收益率仍有进一步攀升的空间。Strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and KKR & Co. see scope for U.S. yields to climb further as energy-driven inflation, heavy government borrowing and the risk of additional centralbank tightening continue to percolate.
notes
book: on the misery of the human conditions, by Lothario Dei Segni (Pope Innocent III), Donald R. Howard, Editor
the experience can be personal without being your fault.
coping is most people do. when people believe their struggle is only their own, they become ashamed. they hide it. they don’t compare notes. they assume everybody else has figured it out, and then all of us keep adapting separately to the same conditions.
刘欢: 人就是这样，总是忽略最亲近的人，说白了，就是挑最亲近的人欺负。
“清北”排名对北大其实是不冤的。未名湖的湖光山色依然令人心醉。其昵称一塔湖图，谐音一塌糊涂。
我在千禧年左右遇到一个极端的例子。我的一个同学去美国国家标准局（NIST）做博士后，住在附近的德国城（German Town）。我去看他时，发现新的公寓楼外都是新车，就他那辆学生时代的破车最显眼。进入他家后，发现他六岁的女儿因为被关在家里而很烦躁，太太的心情也很不好。我问他是怎么一回事？他说首都政府认为黑人不应该住在黑人区，就把这片白人区里的公寓全包起来给黑人区里的黑人住；他一是因为有补助的房租便宜，二是因为他坚信民主党，想与黑人交朋友，就住了进来。我有点不信，说吃福利的哪来的这么多新车在楼下？他说民主党首都政府认为穷人不工作是因为没有车，所以每家再发一辆新车。我还是不信，问这么发福利哪来的钱？他说首都政府不断向国会要拨款，不给就不收垃圾，让国会臭气熏天。我又问你女儿为什么要被关在家里？他说周围的吃福利家庭从来不做饭，天天只给孩子吃一顿政府发的牛奶泡政府发的麦片。她女儿刚来时，与小朋友玩得很好，但是那些小孩子第一次看见中国人家里居然有三顿饭而且不是牛奶泡麦片，居然如此美味，他们以后吃饭时都来吃饭，人越来越多。这样吃了几天，把他一个月的博士后工资都吃完了，食堂只能关门。以后小朋友为了再来吃饭，就威胁他女儿，达不到目的就打。
纽约州政府给穷人的免费医疗，远好过美国各大银行给职员的商业医疗保险，却是我经历多年的。一些低薪低职能的美国企业，如沃尔玛，就控制职工的工时工资，以便职工拿到政府医疗。另一些需要技能的小企业，其工资超过吃福利的最高工资，因为拿不到政府福利，生活质量远不如吃救济的。这就造成了美国的工作穷（working poor）阶层。最近美国外交部长卢比奥（Rubio）也揭露美国工作穷的退休金只有800美元，而给非法移民的生活费是1500美元。
历史上这种在专制下在生产现代化取得成功的例子很多，比如台湾的小蒋时期，和韩国的汉江奇迹。第一个著名的这样的例子就是俾斯麦（Bismarck）专制下德国在第二次工业革命上完胜英国。而且这次胜利不仅是技术上的，也是制度上的。德国专制通过保障工人权益与开创社会福利制度，避免了劳资内耗。而那时英国因为工人运动、与资方对贵族阶层的模仿，内耗不断，社会动荡，从而在以内燃机和化学工业为主导的第二次工业革命中输了，从此国运逐渐衰落。另一方面，德国因为历史上得益于强人政治，所以以后也迷信强人政治，包括在危机中选希特勒上台——德国在政治上的课该补还得补，并且把以前经济上的所得全赔了进去了。(专制下的成功能为专制的存在添彩？))
“Cross the sea,” a young Grazia Deledda wrote in a poem to Americans in 1893, “and tell everyone that the island of Sardinia is still waiting to be discovered and known.”
Ole Edvart Rölvaag, Giants in the Earth (1927)
Edna Ferber, So Big (1924)
Gene Stratton-Porter, The Keeper of the Bees (1925)
Nella Larsen, Passing (1929)
Anzia Yezierska, Bread Givers (1925)
Viña Delmar, Bad Girl (1928)
James Harvey Robinson, The Mind in the Making (1921)
Rudolph Fisher, The Walls of Jericho (1928)
Dorothy Canfield Fisher, The Home-Maker (1924)
Sinclair Lewis, Babbitt (1922)
Elmer Rice, The Adding Machine (1923)
But there are pleasures to be had from books beyond being lightly entertained. There is the pleasure of being challenged; the pleasure of feeling one’s range and capacities expanding; the pleasure of entering into an unfamiliar world, and being led into empathy with a consciousness very different from one’s own; the pleasure of knowing what others have already thought it worth knowing, and entering a larger conversation.
查理大桥是一座哥特建筑和巴洛克雕像的华美融合。它有6座拱门桥墩，三座塔楼，历代国王加冕游行必经之路。它连接了城堡与老城，东欧与西欧。
In 2017, Prague was listed as the fifth most visited European city after London, Paris, Rome, and Istanbul.
汉萨同盟起源于13世纪德意志北部几个沿海市镇（吕贝克、汉堡、不来梅）的商贸互助活动。为了在波罗的海、北海区域拓展贸易，抵御海盗和劫匪，保护共同的商业利益，这些自由城镇相互缔约为盟。随着波罗的海贸易的展开，越来越多的沿海市镇加入汉萨同盟，盟约内容及合作范围也不断深化扩大。1293年，吕贝克成为汉萨同盟总部所在地，吕贝克法成为同盟遵守的共同法律，其时有26个 成员市。1356年在吕贝克召开第一届汉萨同盟大会，加盟市镇已增至52个。加盟市镇之间贸易的主要货物为盐、青鱼、咸肉、粮食、酒类、呢绒、羊毛、鲸油、木材、蜂蜡、桶板、及各种金属制品等等。从14世纪至16世纪，汉萨同盟控制波罗的海和北海地区的贸易长达三个多世纪。其商业船队远达意大利、法国、西班牙和葡萄牙。
在婚姻问题上，受其父钱基博影响，钱钟书所奉行的价值准则，与高梦旦等老辈文人相似。他对胡适不背弃旧婚姻的所作所为，非常钦佩。
奥威尔对苏俄的批判，可能在一定程度上影响了钱钟书对苏俄的看法。而奥威尔对苏俄的批判，在一定程度上又与胡适有异曲同工之处，在苏俄观问题上，钱钟书与胡适应该是有共识的。不论是在1949年，还是到了1950年，在苏俄问题上，不论形势如何变化，胡适的观点是一以贯之的。也许这一行为，在钱钟书看来，是非常难能可贵的。
不论在婚姻问题上，还是在政论问题上，胡适的所作所为，都可谓是从一而终了。这或许就是晚年钱钟书对胡适评价比较高的原因吧。
自建国以来，加拿大的每一次民族觉醒，都与南方的压力有关。19世纪末，被称作”国父“的保守党总理麦当劳在七十六岁高龄迎战主张与美国“经济联合”的自由党人罗里埃。那年，美国国会提出高额关税，影响加拿大经济衰退蔓延。加拿大舆论一度倾向“与美国做友”。麦当劳在多伦多的演讲上掷地有声：“宁可贫穷，也不要失去独立。”二十年后，自由党人罗里埃终于掌权，再次以自由贸易为政纲，向美国示好，却又遭民众对美国的不信任和恐惧而在连任选举中遭击败。加拿大人再一次投票说“不”。之后一个世纪，类似的情节反复上演：1963 年，保守党总理迪芬贝克与美国总统肯尼迪上演冲突，被视为“小国对大国”的尊严保卫之战；1988 年，自由贸易协定公投，让全国陷入“繁荣与主权”的拉锯状态，濒临社会分裂。每一次，当加拿大人感到自己的国家像影子一样被牵动玩弄时，一股深藏的力量便重新冒出——宁可笨拙、缓慢，但是拒绝成为附庸。
自从1988年进入穆罗尼时代，加拿大和美国签订了加美自由贸易协定，继而，墨西哥加入进来，形成了北美自由贸易协定，后来被称作北美自由贸易协定（1.0）。这样的经济布局形成了北美自由贸易区，“一辆汽车的生产过程可以在加拿大、美国、墨西哥之间反复跨境。”加拿大与美国之间的经贸关系，形同美国州际贸易。加拿大对美国的出口额占据国家整体出口额的百分之七十，70%。加拿大对美国的贸易顺差达到六百亿美元结存。
加拿大面对地缘政治中国家定位的历史转机，过去可以认定加拿大是根在欧洲的北美国家。现在，我们需要重新认识，加拿大应该是与欧洲国家结盟的北美国家，同时又是泛太平洋国家。
加拿大在哈伯政府时代已经同欧盟有了加拿大—欧盟综合经济与贸易协定， CETA。
加拿大宣称自己是泛太平洋国家，是全面与进步太平洋伙伴关系协定，CPTPP 的成员国。目前，CPTPP 正式成员国有12国：澳大利亚，文莱，加拿大，智利，日本，马来西亚，墨西哥，新西兰，秘鲁，新加坡，越南和英国 。成员国之间的进出口贸易都公平享有关税优惠。
加拿大经济上还不能真正脱离美国。这是必须冷静看到的一面。 即使加拿大与欧盟关系取得历史性突破，也不可能在两三年内把美国市场替换掉。加拿大与美国经济已经高度一体化。 欧洲市场即使扩大，也不能立即复制这个北美生产体系。CPTPP 的经贸地位尚未发现有意义的作用。加拿大真正需要的是美国和欧洲，而不是美国或欧洲二选一的排斥。加拿大不是要离开美国，而是在美国之外重新建立加拿大。
难民是被推向东道国，移民是被拉向东道国。经济移民大多承认既有世界的规则，只是想在其中找到更好的位置；政治流亡者则往往否定了原政权的合法性，他们的逃亡本身就是一种无声的判决。
美国的繁荣从来不是凭空生长的。一代又一代的人 – 爱尔兰的饥民、意大利的农民、东欧的犹太人、中国的劳工、战后的欧洲难民 – 把劳动力、技艺、野心和破碎的旧梦，一船一船运到这里。他们不是消耗，而是燃料。没有他们，就没有后来的美国。历史早已证明：当大门收窄，创新与活力也会随之枯萎；当人们开始把后来者一律视为负担，这个国家就失去了它最初得以立身的某种东西。总而言之，美国的伟大不应是通过驱逐移民来证实自己。真正的力量，在于帮助那些贫困与渴望自由的人们，改善他们所在国家的生存处境，让他们不必偷渡、不必流亡，也能获得基本的人权与尊严。
熟啤追求稳定，生啤追求减少热处理，鲜啤追求新鲜，原浆追求保留更多发酵原始状态。一般来说，原麦汁浓度高一些，酒体更加饱满。喜欢清爽的人，喜欢低酒精、低苦度的拉格(Lager)；喜欢麦芽香和厚重感的人，喜欢高浓度啤酒；喜欢花香和苦味的人，则喜欢IPA等啤酒花风格明显的产品。没有最好喝的啤酒，只有适不适合你的啤酒。